The “anchor” of my high stakes league team; he has certainly been an anchor, dragging down the team’s ERA and WHIP. Is there anything wrong with him or has he just been unlucky, and should he be a late trade target?

Let’s start with what appears, on the surface to be clear. A.J. Burnett has definitely been unlucky:

–his ERA is 4.84 versus an expected ERA of 4.11

–his FIP ERA is an even better 3.68.

–his left on base percentage, or strand rate, is 67% on the nose; he has generally been around 71% or more.

That said, he also has some negatives: 

–his line drive rate is 21%, which equates to an estimated BABIP of .330 or so. Perhaps he hasn’t been the victim of an inflated BABIP, since his actual figure is .332.

–his groundball rate has taken a dive. In the prior three years his GB rates have been 51%, 58% and 55%. This year it is 47.8%.

–his control has weakened a bit. He is walking 4 batters per nine innings. In 2007 he was at 3.5.

–he has arguably been fortunate in his HR/FB rate. Since coming to Toronto his HR/FB rates have been 12% and 18%, this year it is 9.9%.

What we have here is a pitcher letting up more line drives and less groundballs, with a few extra walks thrown in. His profile though clearly shows that the positives far outweigh the negatives. Toronto’s defense has been solid this year, with a .711 defensive efficiency, good enough for seventh in baseball, so we cannot blame poor defense.

Toronto is an interesting team. They arguably are one of the ten best teams in baseball, a fact that is overshadowed by their position in the AL East. Their Pythagorean record gives them 52 wins, one game behind the first place Mets and tied with the Angels (in Pythagorean run records not actual standings).

A.J. has had a few off the field issues this season, and if he is distracted and not focused we might see this in his strand rate and walk rate, both of which are worse in 2008 compared to 2007. Perhaps this is an explanation; but I say perhaps because this is “soft” evidence that should not be preferred to “hard” evidence. 

To me, the “hard” evidence shows that he is poised at the precipice of a big turnaround, or so I hope at least. Let’s use, as a guide, the BaseballHQ PQS scores. Four of his last six starts have been PQS dominant starts, where he met all five criteria and got a score of five. In his other two he was normal with scores of 3 and 2 in back to back starts in early July.

You wouldn’t know that a turnaround might be coming by his ERA, which has been above 5.00 in both June and July, but the seeds are there. His monthly expected ERAs are much improved; in May it was 3.50, in June 3.97 and in July 4.01.

This may be your last chance to go get him since trade deadlines are likely approaching. If you need some help you need to take risks in direct proportion to how much help is necessary; the more help you need the bigger risk you must take. Burnett is a risk but one that could pay handsome dividends. Is a turnaround a certainty? No. Is it a percentage play? Maybe not; the odds are probably around 7-5 against a turnaround, but that is still fairly tasty when you have to take a risk.

In my league I have been asked about him and am going to hold him hoping for that turnaround.