A month ago, we examined the postseason odds produced by Baseball Prospectus‘ estimable Clay Davenport and his powerful simluation. Since then, some playoff races have remained fluid (see the AL Central), while others have solidified (AL West). What do the likely playoff scenarios look like now?

Before we look at a (very) simplified version of Davenport’s odds, it bears repeating that these odds are produced by running, one million times, a simulation of the rest of the season using expected win-loss records for each team, and a log5 method to calculate matchups between teams. You can find more information on log5 here, if you’re interested, and on the Pythagenport model (which is what produces the expected win-loss records for this simulation) here.

AL EAST           W     L     Division   Wild Card
Rays              96.3  65.7  74.04%     22.57%
Red Sox           93.0  69.0  25.36%     59.21%
Yankees           85.1  76.9  0.50%      4.52%

AL CENTRAL        W     L     Division   Wild Card
White Sox         91.0  71.0  66.68%     4.63%
Twins             88.8  73.2  33.05%     7.54%
Tigers            79.6  82.4  0.25%      0.05%

AL WEST           W     L     Division   Wild Card
Angels            96.9  65.1  99.90%     0.00%
Rangers           79.5  82.5  0.10%      0.06%
Athletics         76.0  86.0  0.01%      0.00%

(Average wins for the AL Wild Card: 92.6)

NL EAST           W     L     Division   Wild Card
Mets              89.3  72.7  71.24%     1.30%
Phillies          86.1  75.9  24.40%     2.10%
Marlins           82.0  80.0  4.26%      0.24%

NL CENTRAL        W     L     Division   Wild Card
Cubs              98.9  63.1  90.10%     8.84%
Brewers           92.2  69.8  8.83%      68.36%
Cardinals         88.4  73.6  1.06%      18.44%

NL WEST           W     L     Division   Wild Card
Dodgers           85.3  76.7  50.75%     0.23%
Diamondbacks      85.2  76.8  48.81%     0.22%
Rockies           75.5  86.5  0.42%      0.00%

(Average wins for the NL Wild Card: 92.6)

As we can see, a month of strong play from the Rays, Angels, Mets, and Cubs has increased their chances to win their divisions to either very good (the Rays’ chances have gone from 49% to 74%; the Mets, 53% to 71%) or near-certain (the Cubs have gone from 63% to 90%, and the Angels from 81% to practically 100%).

On the other end of the scale, the Yankees’ odds make it look almost entirely certain they will not make the playoffs this year. It’s been over a decade since the Yankees last missed the playoffs, which makes it hard to believe it will happen this year, but with the Red Sox and Rays as strong as they are, even the wild card chances look grim for New York, according to this model. I emphasize that point because it’s important to remember that this simulation is largely based on what each team has accomplished thus far this season (specifically, their runs scored and runs allowed records). So this model has nothing to say about Carl Crawford’s finger injury, or Evan Longoria’s broken wrist, both of which will certainly affect the Rays’ chances for the rest of the season.

In any case, I’m curious to know your thoughts for the rest of the year. Any predictions you’d like to stake against these?