I’m going to try a new type of column today that came to me out of nowhere yesterday. As the title of the article suggests, I’m going to be arguing with myself! Mike1 will be in bold and Mike2 will be in italics. Each Mike will have his own opinion on a player and debate his side. I’ve decided to start with last year’s MVP, Jimmy Rollins, who is having a bust of a fantasy season after likely being drafted in the 1st round or purchased at $30+. For reference, Rollins has averaged 666 ABs over each full season he’s played, so his current season stats pro-rated for that AB total is thus: .266-13-69-92-51. And here we go…

Look at all those stolen bases! A 51 SB pace would represent a career high, pretty amazing considering he was out with an ankle injury, which you’d figure would curtail his steal attempts. Those extra steals certainly offset the rest of his disappointing stats.

C’mon now, he’s below expectations in 4 of 5 categories! The 51 SBs are still only 10 more than last year. His pro-rated production doesn’t come close to 1st round value.

Well his BABIP is only .280, which is below his .300 career rate, and he’s hitting line drives at a 22.6% clip, leading to a .346 xBABIP. I think the hits just simply aren’t dropping in for him this year and that would explain his low average.

Rollins has done this before, as he posted a .284 BABIP in 2006 and a .277 in 2002, though the LD%s were lower, as were the GB%s in each year. A .280 BABIP isn’t so below the range of reasonable outcomes to assume this number will definitely increase.

Fine, moving right along, he seems to be in a season-long home run slump. His HR/F is only 6.8% this year, after notching 10.7% last year and 11.1% the year before. He’s only 29 years old, so he’s still in his prime and should not have already passed his power peak.

Well sure, if we only focused on ‘06 and ‘07, when he had his HR outburst, this might be a logical conclusion. But take a look at ‘02-’05 (FanGraphs doesn’t have this data for ‘01) and you’ll notice that his HR/F ratios, in chronological order, were just 5.8%, 4.6%, 6.9%, and 6.3%.  The 6.8% rate this year fits in quite well with those years, don’t they? Is it unreasonable to believe that maybe, just maybe, ‘06 and ‘07 was a little over Rollins’ head and represented his HR ceiling he may never reach again?  And last, his FB% has dropped to just 32.2%, down from 44.2% last year. It seems to me that last year may have been a conscious change in approach to pump up his power, as he also walked just 6.4% of the time.

Fair enough, but this is a SS at a position that is quickly losing top players, and one who plays in a powerful offense in a hitter’s paradise. All these factors alone should guarantee that Rollins maintains excellent value and be drafted as a top 3 SS and probably in the top 2 rounds in 2009.

 .295-10-53-108-37. That’s Brian Roberts’ line from this year pro-rated for the 600 ABs he’s averaged the previous 4 years. Value-wise, this appears pretty close to Rollins’ pro-rated stats. Has Brian Roberts ever been ranked in the top 2 rounds? Of course not. And you can’t really argue about the positional difference considering the two are usually lumped together because of the MI roster slot.

Well lucky for us, I can actually calculate a close approximation of the 2 players’ values given their pro-rated stats. Rollins comes in at about $23, while Roberts $18. Not a dramatic difference, but certainly not the same. The bottom line is that what Rollins is doing this year likely represents his downside, with the exception of SBs. We know the upside, just look at ‘06 and ‘07. As I mentioned previously, he hasn’t even turned 30 yet, so he’s still right smack in the middle of his prime, and he’s only been caught stealing once all year! So any concerns that his steals will start to trend down as he ages should be eliminated for now.

Fine, go ahead and draft him in the top 2 rounds, while I reduce my risk and draft a player with higher reliability, yet similar expected value.

Phew, Mike1 and Mike2 have appeared to finally calm down. That was quite a debate, and each bring up good points. So who do you agree with, Mike1 or Mike2? Be sure to keep checking back for the next debate that is sure to be just as exciting a battle as this one.

Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.