We have written about him a few times, and it appears that Ellsbury is no longer even a real contender for the ROY award as the luck pendulum starts to swing the other way. Those analysts (or one in particular) who continually browbeat Paul Greco, Lenny Melnick and I for caviling on Ellsbury now owe us an apology. Earlier this year I stated on more than on radio show (including that person’s show) that we had to take Ellsbury’s career to date with a huge grain of salt, aided as it was by a huge BABIP in not even one season of at-bats.
The aforementioned ”analyst,” who runs the expert league that I am in, essentially has been crowing all year about how smart he was in selecting Jacoby Ellsbury with a tenth round pick and predicting him for 12 HR. So impressed with his knowledge was this analyst that he had the temerity to readily suggest that owners may be justified in taking Ellsbury over Jose Reyes next year.
His expertise is certainly in question now. Previously I wrote about Ellsbury’s beginning decline, and stated:
The point here is that we have to keep in mind that we are still in the area where we cannot say with any certainty just what type of player Ellsbury will be nor how good he actually is. He may very well be Johnny Damon, but he may also be Cristian Guzman.
Ellsbury is fairly close to hitting rock bottom and is barely even a credible major leaguer in his current state. From a scouting perspective he is essentially a slap hitter with gap power who can be pitched to inside without fear of reprisal. Pitchers are now taking advantage of this inability to hit the inside pitch with authority, this according to Joe Sheehan at Baseball Prospectus and a few other reports I have read.
His recent stats are simply atrocious and reminiscent of a guy who has no business being in the majors:
0 HR 3 RBI 2 SB .226/.235/.262 one (!) walk in 84 ABs 82% contact rate and 28% hit rate.
His contact rate and hit rate are within an expected range, so what does this tell us? That he is making contact but not hitting with authority. At all. He is swinging at everything and making contact with far too many weak batted balls. He has shown zero patience, and the results speak for themselves. Right now he is Cristian Guzman circa 2005.
Ellsbury, caught between a rock and a hard place in this play and in his season
His monthly expected batting averages and OPS tell the tale: .298/.853 in April, .289/.771 in May, .264/.591 in June and .244/.566 in July. In his last 200 ABs he has nine RBI, one home run, .246 BA and .263 OBP. He has been dumped to the number nine hole.
This is not a case of a player having a regression that will eventually turn around; while the regression is still on going we do not know if he will snap out of it or not. He started out radically outperforming every projection because of luck and is still in the process of regressing, with the 28% hit rate being an indicator. What we do not know is whether that 28% is what he is capable of or if it represents bad luck. If it is what he is capable of then there is big trouble on the horizon.
It is much more than simple regression right now. On top of the regression he is also showing that perhaps his hitting skills were a mirage. His skill set right now, over the last two hundred at-bats is not that of a major leaguer and he has had 270 good at-bats in the majors and 220 terrible ones.
Whether the truth lies in the middle of his current execrable and his former laudable performances remains to be seen. As usual, Joe Sheehan was prescient and hit the nail on the head when he said the fact that AL pitchers are adapting to Ellsbury means he could be at a crossroads. The question is whether it is for the season or perhaps more.
Let me be clear, we still do not know what to expect out of Ellsbury and no one has any real idea what kind of player he is right now. His next 500 at bats will tell us a lot more than his first 500, and the current record is enough to suggest a huge range of possible outcomes, from all star to replacement.
Hope comes from his minor league record, which shows that his hitting ability is likely to be far better than he is currently showing, and I still think that this current funk is likely to be a blip, though a huge blip it is. His future projections in PECOTA look good for the next few years. But who knows what will happen on the field or in his head; in that respect any opinion is pure speculation.
9 responses so far ↓
1 Troy Patterson // Aug 6, 2008 at 12:20 pm
We had this discusion earlier this year and as most of the league I play in is from Boston we had a few homers. I personally wished they sent him to the Twins for Santana. I think based on his makeup the best he could ever be is Ichiro, but Ichiro has a better K% which helps him bat over .300. I think Ellsbury in the end due to his OBP probably averaging out at less than .350 will not have huge value, but will always get picked for steals though.
2 rob // Aug 6, 2008 at 2:56 pm
Honestly, I don’t think I have ever seen the word cavil before yesterday. And, thanks to the cunning use of fantasybaseballgenerals.com, I have seen it twice in two days!
Fantasybaseballgenerals.com: leave the cavil to us!
This being said, the only thing that made Ellsbury an attractive pickup this year was an amazing short stint last season… a regression was easy to spot.
3 General Fan // Aug 7, 2008 at 4:48 pm
I do not know a thing about Ellsbury except, he is fast, small and sometimes hits. The thing I do know a 12 oz cup of beer at the Olympics in Beijing $ 1.16. OMG who cares about the smog and Tibet. A 1.16 $ cup of beer are you kidding me. I mean after two hours at the shot put, Ellsbury and every other guy looking like a jockey….Seems bigger, faster and a better fantasy option. burrrrrp sorry, Ellsbury is a guy that steals bases and hits ninth. In that context he is an overachiever. The key here, is like beer in the olympics…Get value for your draft choice, draft Ellsbury as a 30-40 sb guy and 260 - 270 hitter. That is enough with the Ellsbury talk ….Let the games begin ( who cares) 1. 16 beer …USA USA USA USA USA
4 Wes // Aug 7, 2008 at 5:17 pm
Well, if you are going to use the word ‘cavil’ in a sentence — which is a bit pompous, but good for everyone’s vocabulary — you should probably get the rest of the grammar in the sentence right. “Those analysts (or one in particular) who continually browbeat Paul Greco, Lenny Melnick and I for caviling on Ellsbury now owe us an apology.” should be “…Paul Greco, Lenny Melnick, and me…” If you took Paul and Lenny out of the sentence, would you say I or Me?
That said, I think Ellsbury is bound to up his stats a bit to what might be projected based on his past performance at the minor league levels. So no, not a superstar, but probably not a scrub either.
5 Patrick DiCaprio // Aug 7, 2008 at 6:37 pm
Wes you are right. Damn!! I hate mistakes like that. But thanks for reading.
6 Dustin // Aug 8, 2008 at 7:03 am
I didn’t read your article, as I know it’s just a waste of time…but somebody told me about this nonsense and I had to see it for myself.
You will be eating your words from here on out “pal.” Jacoby is the real deal.
7 Jed // Aug 8, 2008 at 11:30 am
Ignore Dustin, he has a tendency to talk trash. Did you see the article about him in ESPN the magazine? “170 Pounds of Mouth?” Good stuff. The least Dustin could have done is read the damn article.
Patrick, though I agree with Wes that unusual words do sometimes sound a bit out of place in blogging, it is good to see someone with some vocabulary beyond the 6th grade level! Try throwing in “tyro” in one of these next time you are talking about a rookie!
Us Oregon boys gots ta stay together!
8 Dustin // Aug 8, 2008 at 2:08 pm
I’m ignoring the article because he is comparing Jacoby with a guy who hit below .220 (Guzman hit .219 in 2005). Even Jacoby’s worst hitting month this year is way above that (in June he hit .245). How are those numbers comparable by any stretch? And let’s not even bring up defense because then it really brings out just how foolish this concept is.
In any case, Jacoby is the real deal and whoever doubts him obviously hasn’t watch enough of his games.
9 Patrick DiCaprio // Aug 9, 2008 at 7:42 am
Jed thanks. Frankly I am tired of the “tyro” reading level target of most blogs. (are you happy now?).
Here is the thing; I never said Ellsbury will be a flop. I think he still will be fine. but the point is that if anyone thinks the KNOW what will happen to him they are lying. Whether he will adjust to the new approach by AL pitching remains to be seen.
Dustin–thanks for reading anyway, we appreciate all dissenting criticism and viewpoints. and i gather you have watchED all of his games!
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