This week the Roundtable was asked who the top ten pitchers will be in 2010. We are posting here in place of Fantasy Baseball Geeks.
1. Tim Lincecum
2. C.C. Sabathia
3. Chad Billingsley
4. Dan Haren
5. Joba Chamberlain
6. Brandon Webb
7. Felix Hernandez
8. Johan Santana
9. Clayton Kershaw
10. Jon Lester
Mike Podhorzer–Fantasy Baseball Generals
Being that 2010 is only 2 seasons from now, I don’t think the top 10 will differ too much from whom we think of as the top 10 currently. With that said, my list might be a little boring, as I went with the “most likely” to be in the top 10, rather than guys who “could” end up in it. In no particular order…
Johan Santana- Skills have regressed, but will still only be 31 in 2010 and should continue to be a top pitcher.
Jake Peavy- Not much to say, absolutely dominating and will only be 28.
Brandon Webb- Will keep on being a top pitcher as long as his GB% remains above 60%.
CC Sabathia- Move to NL gives him an even better career outlook.
Josh Beckett- Skills just as good as last year, has been victim of some bad luck.
Dan Haren- Excellent skills + move to NL keeps him in top 10.
Scott Kazmir- Health is only thing holding him back from being a no-brainer
Felix Hernandez- One of these years, he’s going to have a 3.00 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and strike out 200+ with his skill set.
Tim Lincecum- If only the Giants had anything resembling an offense!
Joba Chamberlain- Very similar to Lincecum skill set, but with a better offense for his win potential, though health could be a concern.
Let’s see, in the year 2010… Whoa…. When you say, “in the year 2010,” everything becomes wavy like in a dream sequence. Seriously.
Try it. Here, I’ll do it. In the year 2010 — see! Okay, in the year 2010, I will almost definitely be going to my fantasy baseball draft in a flying car, I will be wearing sunglasses made of potatoes because some rapper decided to make that cool and the top pitchers off the board will be Koby Clemens, Greg Maddux Jr. Jr. and some North Korean pitcher no one but me has heard of…. Oh, wait. This is only a year and a half away. Um, then all the usual suspects will be top pitchers, Johan, Peavy, Hamels, Kip Wells (my astrologer says he will undergo Six Million Dollar Man surgery), Lincecum, Sabathia, Gaylord Perry (in a comeback for the ages!), Webb, Billingsley and Koby Clemens, cause you should never beat against a kid whose pops can score ‘roids.
Should be a good year, I’ll see you there in my potato sunglasses.
Mike Muschiano–The Poughkeepsie Journal
1. Tim Lincecum- I piss my pants when he is scheduled to pitch against my team. Electric stuff and already beginning to reveal his massive potential this season. Give him another year of experience and he will be the best pitcher in baseball.
2. Johan Santana- will be reaching his prime in the 2010 season and will have adjusted to the NL and New York by then. A top pitcher now, and a top pitcher in two years.
3. Brandon Webb- Since 2004, Webb has improved his ERA, strikeouts, and win total each season. Hes becoming one of the most consistent and dominant pitchers in the game.
4. Cole Hamels- similar to Lincecum, Hamels has electric stuff and an overpowering fastball. He can rack up strikeouts and should continue to improve and blossom over the next two years.
5. Felix Hernandez- an ERA under 3.00 this year, should be in the running for AL Cy Young by 2010.
6. Dan Haren
7. Carlos Zambrano
8. Jake Peavy
9. John Lackey
10. Clayton Kershaw- once he learns how to pitch in the majors, he should be a special player in this league for years to come.
Very good question, and I have admittedly put too little thought into the answer. But here goes…
1. CC Sabathia
2. Tim Lincecum
3. Brandon Webb
4. Johan Santana
5. Scott Kazmir
6. Dan Haren
7. Edinson Volquez
8. Jake Peavy
9. Cole Hamels
10. Felix Hernandez
Honorable Mentions Clayton Kershaw and Rich Harden
1. Lincecum
2. Haren
3. Felix
4. Webb
5. Hamels
6. Santana
7. Garza
8. Halladay
9. Billingsley
10. Price
1. Tim Lincecum
2. Felix Hernandez
3. Jake Peavy
4. Dan Haren
5. CC Sabathia
6. Brandon Webb
7. Josh Beckett
8. Johan Santana
9. Cole Hamels
10. Chad Billingsley
Tim Lincecum possesses the highest K/9 ratio and his ERC and DIPS fully support his dominance. He’s on pace to strike out over 250 batters with a sub-3.00 ERA. 13-3 for a Giants pitcher is pretty good, too.
Felix Hernandez took a big step forward this year. His ERA and WHIP have improved in three consecutive seasons and he’s only 23. Expect big things in the future.
Josh Beckett has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball and his peripherals check out. He should bounce back.
Johan Santana has the lowest K/9 ratio of his career, despite a switch to the NL. At this rate, he’ll strike out 198 batters. This, after striking out 235-265 over the last four seasons. It makes him mortal and no longer warrants a top 5 ranking.
Chad Billingsley matched last year’s stats, but with more innings and a sizable increase in strikeouts. He pitches in a good park and should continue to improve.
Scott Kazmir is not included on this list because of his injury concerns. After putting together his first full season in 2007, Kazmir reverted back to his old ways.
Both Matt Cain and Ervin Santana were in consideration for one of the final spots but just missed the cut. I expect big years for each of them in 2009.
21 responses so far ↓
1 Mike Podhorzer // Aug 22, 2008 at 5:56 am
Very surprised that only Brett picked Beckett besides me, a little surprised no one else picked Joba, and not surprised at all that Jason picked 2 Rays, and not even any named Scott or James!
As the only one who didn’t choose Hamels, I am worried about his 2 year decline in K/9, which is now below 8, and his flyball ways. Plus you can’t ignore his injury risk, although I did include Kazmir and Joba instead, but because I like their skill sets better.
2 Patrick DiCaprio // Aug 22, 2008 at 7:05 am
I am shocked that no one picked Joba!! No way Santana is still number one in 2010 though Mikey!
My top ten:
Lincecum, Webb, Chamberlain, Garza, Billingsley, Price, Baker, King Felix, Cain, and going off the board to say Madison Bumgarner
3 Brian Joura // Aug 22, 2008 at 8:21 am
Madison Bumgarner?!? The same guy who is currently pitching in the low-A South Atlantic League is going to be one of the top 10 pitchers in MLB in 2010? I think you have your next topic for the “Are You Crazy” segment.
At least Jason Collette remembered that Roy Halladay exists…
4 Patrick DiCaprio // Aug 22, 2008 at 8:44 am
Brian I had to throw one wild speculation in there! But his MLE translated from his dominant performance so far is for a 3.40 FIP with a WHIP of 1.00. So he is at least a credible guy to make a meteoric rise.
5 Mike Muschiano // Aug 22, 2008 at 9:37 am
Yeah, good point Brian. Most people neglected to include Halladay on their lists, including myself.
How about Johnny Cueto? I was tempted to throw myself in the fire by putting him on my list but went with Kershaw instead. If there’s a guy who has electric stuff and a world of potential, it’s Cueto. But he could be more than two years away from any elite status.
6 rob // Aug 22, 2008 at 11:25 am
Is it fair to say that the only bum Madison will garner is that of Mr. DiCaprio?
7 Don // Aug 22, 2008 at 11:50 am
Hey guys…great site and great to hear your support of Tim Lincecum.
Feel free to visit the unofficial fan website I just launched for Timmy here:
http://www.timlincecum.com
It has lots of video links, photos, articles, trivia, bio info and much more.
Don Chin
Editor
8 Mike Podhorzer // Aug 22, 2008 at 12:05 pm
Patrick said: “No way Santana is still number one in 2010 though Mikey!”
Well Patrick, maybe old age is starting to hurt your reading ability? The last line of my opening paragraph was:
“In no particular order…”!!!!
9 Patrick DiCaprio // Aug 22, 2008 at 1:20 pm
Mike—Doh!!
10 Donny // Aug 22, 2008 at 1:43 pm
I think Cueto will be in the top 10 by then. Not as big on Lester.
11 Bobbafitos // Aug 22, 2008 at 2:15 pm
I know he’s still on the return from major surgery, but what happened to Francisco Liriano? Isn’t he worth mentioning given his past 2 months or so?
12 Brett Greenfield // Aug 22, 2008 at 2:35 pm
I’m most surprised that more people didn’t have Chad Billinglsey on their lists.
I’m voting for Tim Lincecum on November.. not Obama or McCain.
13 Jason Sarney // Aug 22, 2008 at 5:50 pm
Joba is not going to be a Top 10 next season. He will be on and off the DL.
Lincecum was a pleasure to own, and is the clear NO. 1, being he had maybe 3 bad fantasy days that actually hurt you…if that.
Halladay is proven he should not be out of the Top 10 either.
14 Steve // Aug 22, 2008 at 10:24 pm
Great article. But Zambrano making the list??
15 Jeff // Aug 23, 2008 at 5:48 am
I agree with all the lists. but let’s not forget Yovanni Gallardo. His injury was a freak accident, and I believe he is already better than Billingsly (better control, better secondary pitches).
16 Brandon H // Aug 23, 2008 at 6:56 am
It is surprising that so many ‘old’ pitchers are being picked. Y!s top 10 currently looks like:
Halladay, Lee, Webb, Lincecum, Haren, Sabathia, Santana, Harden, Duchscherer, and Hamels.
From that list, only Halladayand Duchscher are 30+. However, people are expecting the majority of the top 10 in 2010 to be 30+.
That is, consider back to 2006, who would have figured after that season that Lincecum and Hamels would be in the top 10 for this season?
With that being said, I think most people need to go younger and keep in mind pitchers that are yet in the majors.
17 Eric // Aug 23, 2008 at 7:19 am
Curious what people think of Verlander, he is so young (25) that it appears his off year this season could be part of his growing. I still think he has the stuff to be in the top 10 by 2o10 when he will only be 27.
18 Brett Greenfield // Aug 23, 2008 at 8:09 am
Jeff - Interesting that you bring him up.
He’ll be someone to watch next year. We’ll see how he responds to all of this time off.
Steve - Zambrano not making this list is the right thing. His K/9 ratio has declined tremendously and he’s on a downward trend in ERC and DIPS.
He’s seen better days.
19 Brian Joura // Aug 24, 2008 at 11:33 am
In 2007 the top 10 pitchers were: Peavy, Santana, Sabathia, Beckett, Webb, Lackey, Bedard, Harang, Haren and Carmona. In 2006 the top 10 were: Santana, Carpenter, Webb, Smoltz, Oswalt, Halladay, Mussina, Arroyo, Zambrano and Liriano.
So, accepting that the current 2008 crop will finish as the top 10, that leaves us three pitchers among 30 (Carmona, Lincecum and Liriano) who did not pitch in the majors two years before breaking into the top 10 list.
I would interpret that to mean to focus on guys who WERE in the majors when projecting pitching Top 10. It’s a fools errand to pick one out of 10 from the minors.
And while young guys dominate the list recently, if we go back to 2002 we would find Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling and Pedro Martinez as the top three pitchers. My guess is these things are just cyclical.
20 Brandon H // Aug 26, 2008 at 5:29 pm
Brian,
My point, was that for the most part, these picks are, for the most part, carbon copies of the 2008 top 10. How is Carpenter, Smoltz, Oswalt, Mussina, Arroyo, and Liriano doing this year, 2 years after the fact?
That is to say, one can expect at least a 50% turnover. Comparatively, most are aiming at a 10-20% turnover in the common seasons.
21 Patrick DiCaprio // Aug 26, 2008 at 6:36 pm
Brandon, I take it from your comments that you would view my picks more favorably? I had the same thought as you; i though the picks were a bit too conservative in terms of turnover. mine are probably too far the other way though.
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