Not too much competition for the number one slot here, but there are a lot for the number five slot. Read on, Reds fans!
1. The Blossoming of Edinson Volquez-His season would be a good contender for the biggest fantasy story of the year, much less the biggest story for the Reds. Cincinnati already has the nation’s best ice cream, and now they have one of its best pitchers. Sadly though, the future may not be as rosy as one might think; Volquez is walking over 4 batters per nine and is steadily deteriorating as the season wears on:
ERA WHIP BB/9 K/9 K/BB
April 1.23 1.23 4.9 10.1 2.1
May 1.63 1.22 4.7 11.6 2.5
June 3.45 1.18 3.4 7.8 2.3
July 4.55 1.57 3.7 7.8 2.1
August 4.63 1.54 3.1 5.4 1.8
2. The Fall of Aaron Harang-He was a popular second tier pitcher selection and many analysts thought he was vastly underrated coming into this year. However, it is possible that his workload caught up with him in 2008, as he was a model of consistency in the last three years while amassing over 670 innings pitched. He has been hammered in the HR/9 category this year, and has produced a below average BABIP and LOB% or strand rate. This may be luck induced but it may also be overwork and Harang has complained of various transient arm issues this year including forearm problems, which is often code for “elbow.”

3. The Success of the Rookies–Rookies can be considered successes if they merely remain in the lineup all year regardless of performance. Here the Reds have undoubtedly been successful. While not spectacular, Johnny Cueto has been a big success in this department and is a far better bet for success in the future than Edinson Volquez. Jay Bruce and Joey Votto have also been very good as rookies; though Bruce only has a .302 OBP he is still very young and just being able to stay in the lineup without losing a job and performing at a minimum major league level reveals a possible Hall of Fame talent. On the downside is Homer Bailey’s outright disaster, but overall this has been a successful season for this bumper crop of rookies.
4. Brandon Phillips Falls Out of the First Round–Ah the perils of relying upon low walk guys. .268/313/.463?? Come on Brandon you play in Great American Ballpark! His low BA and OBP appear to be a result of bad luck as he has a .288 expected batting average, and his other skills are in the same range as always. Look for a rebound.
5. What to make of Edwin Encarnacion? Here is another guy that fantasy owners were all over in the preseason, expecting a breakout season. Yet, his season is another disappointment, be it from lack of effort, poor managing or something else. His hit rate is only 26%, which is unusually low, and his expected batting average is .275. However, he only has a 15% line drive rate, which explains the low hit rate. With terrible defense, a laissez-faire attitude and a manager with a doghouse the size of St. Patrick’s Cathedral, his star may not blossom fully in Cincinnati.



4 responses so far ↓
1 Mike Podhorzer // Aug 21, 2008 at 7:30 am
You really think Cueto is a far better bet for success in the future than Volquez? I smell a Generals Face-Off.
2 Patrick DiCaprio // Aug 21, 2008 at 7:32 am
Absolutely!
3 Finn // Aug 21, 2008 at 8:29 am
Volquez vs. Cueto in 2009 is a pretty great idea for an article.
4 Patrick DiCaprio // Aug 21, 2008 at 8:45 am
we may have to have this as a topic on the radio show
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