As we continue to look around the league at the top fantasy stories from each team, let’s stop again in the Midwest for the best Brew Crew tales from 2008.
Is it fair to say number one could be in the top five fantasy stories of the MLB? At least we could include him in the Indians’ top five as well–I mean, of course,
1. C.C. “Cy Young” Sabathia. As we warmed up to the beginning of this year, a lot of us fantasy baseball managers had some fears about the reigning A.L. Cy Young Award winner. His high inning count from last year (241.0 in the regular season, up from 192.2. the year before), coupled with his very visible poor performance in the playoffs (1-2 with a 8.80 ERA and 2.22 WHIP in three games), led quite a few observers to think that this could be a down year for C.C. (as it has largely turned out to be for his former teammate Fausto Carmona). When C.C. started the year with a disastrous series of starts and finished May with a 3-7, 4.71 ERA record, it looked like everyone’s fears were confirmed.
However, he was on his way to getting back on track, and steadily improved through the summer, finally reaching this point, almost two months since his first start for the Brewers, when he is 14-8 for the season with a 2.95 ERA. That’s helped mightily by his 8-0, 1.59 ERA record for Milwaukee–a record that includes five complete games, two of them shutouts. C.C. is already past 200 innings for the season, so we should probably all be as wary about next year as we were this year, but he’s gunning to prove he’s as valuable (in cash terms) to MLB teams as Johan Santana. If you’ve had him on your fantasy team the past few months, he’s been as elite as they come.
2. Ryan “The Beast” Braun. Sure, he had a great year last year, more than earning his Rookie of the Year honors with a .324 average, 34 home runs, and 1.004 OPS, but some signs indicated he might not be able to repeat those kind of numbers. His BABIP was .367, for one, and his HR/FB ratio was all the way up at 22.1%–not to mention he struck out a lot (to a 24.8% rate) and hardly walked (6.0%). All of which pointed to a very good batter, but maybe one who would suffer from some regression and growing pains in his second year in the majors.
Well, here we are at the end of August, and what has Braun done? He’s hit .299, knocked 32 home runs, and his OPS is .929. He’s striking out a wee bit less (22.1% now), and walking a little less, too (5.4%). His BABIP has even regressed to .328, which helps account for the dip in average. But we’re not looking at a crash by any means–we’re looking at someone establish himself as one of the top sluggers in the game (and he can apparently steal 10-15 bases a year, too). From here out, the upside for Braun looks to be the possibility he improves his strikeout and walk numbers. But if not, he apparently could have a solid baseline to fall back on.
3. The bullpen - a catastrophe of classical proportions. Eric Gagne started this year as the Brewers’ closer, and now, well… Um. Wow. A blown save in his first season appearance set the tone, as Gagne struggled through April and May, blowing three more saves and building a 6.98 ERA before departing at the close of May with tendinitis in his rotator cuff. Since then, Gagne has pitched okay, if erratically, but he’s been given no save opportunities. Meanwhile, if you picked up Salomon Torres in the midst of the meltdown, you’ve been pleased to reap the 20 saves he’s notched since the beginning of June. Then again, he has four blown saves since then, and two of them in the last ten days. Uh oh…
4. Prince Fielder - when expectations and regression collide. We all should have known that last year’s 50 home runs couldn’t be repeated. I mean, we did know it. But even if we knew that number would regress, we should have known that it was unrealistic to expect a regression to, like, 48. As it turns out, Fielder’s 2008 season is a slight improvement over the line he established in 2006. This year he’s hitting .270/.369/.870 with 28 home runs, and he’s walking at a 12.9% rate. Two years ago, he was at .271/.347/.831 with 28 HR and a 9.4% walk rate, so that’s nice to see a young, powerful hitter gradually mature as he spends more time in the majors.
But oh man. That 2007 line in between: .288/.395/1.013. 50 home runs. Fifty!
Anyway. Fielder’s BABIP over his four years in the major leagues has settled in at .298 (even last year it was only .286), which suggests he’s not likely to be a challenger for the batting title. But he does have great power, and though this year’s 18.5% HR/FB ratio is lower than last year’s 23.9%, it’s better than any other year he’s played in the majors. Fielder will continue to produce high home run total seasons. But let’s agree to be more realistic in our expectations next year. Maybe.
5. Corey Hart: from sleeper to star? Last year was the first time Corey Hart showed up with both power and speed, and he surely helped many fantasy teams down the stretch with his 24 HR and 23 SB on top of his .295 average. Quite a few fantasy owners hoped for an even better year from Hart this year–at the end of August, we’re still waiting for the superstar breakout. That’s not to say Hart has been bad. He’s been very good, and is still on pace for a nice 25-25 season, despite the .285 average and middling .319 OBP. This season makes it seem that the coming years will present a fine stabilization for Hart at a similar level–and maybe not the big-power, super-speed breakout we’ve been hoping for.



6 responses so far ↓
1 Patrick DiCaprio // Aug 25, 2008 at 11:06 am
Nice lead in pic! I am not too worried about Sabathia. He is 27 and is past the injury nexus. As brian pointed out in an earlier article, the Brewers have every incentive to ride him hard down the stretch so things could change in September, but he looks like a guy who can handle a heavy workload.
He is probably the best bet among current starters under 150 wins to get to 300!
2 Andrew Cleary // Aug 25, 2008 at 11:57 am
That’s a good point about the injury nexus. I forgot to consider that. As it is, he’s apparently going the Roy Halladay/Brandon Webb “just keep pitching” route.
How fantastic has this trade turned out for the Brewers and Sabathia both? They get to rent a dominant pitcher to help their playoff bid, and he gets to show everyone in the world that he deserves a huge contract at the end of the year.
3 Matt // Aug 26, 2008 at 11:18 pm
I’m pretty sure the Yovani Gallardo injury needs to be up there. With him starting over Bush/McClung/Villanueva all year long, dazzling and dominating (because yes, he would have) the Brew Crew could have a nice big cushion for a playoff spot. Not to mention how big of a setback this is for the (very near) future ace. This made a HUGE, yet barely talked about impact.
4 Andrew Cleary // Aug 27, 2008 at 9:09 am
Matt, that’s true, Gallardo had a lot of promise going into this year, and I’m hoping he can come back next year and pick up where he left off.
5 Matt // Aug 27, 2008 at 5:18 pm
Theres no doubt Gallardo will be a top 20 fantasy pitcher (at least worthy of, he won’t be drafted so, obviously) next year. IMO, he’s the best young pitcher not named Lincecum, and he’s even on par with Tim, except for strikeouts. But Gallardo hasn’t had nearly as much an opportunity to show his stuff as Lincecum, so we will see just how dominant he is next year. Along with Parra.
6 Patrick DiCaprio // Aug 27, 2008 at 5:48 pm
There is a lot of doubt on that isn’t there? Best young pitcher after Tim Lincecum? Maybe but it may take him a while to get going. Just as an example, BP had him coming into this year projected for a 4 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP; and that is before he got hurt. You might be right but it isn’t open and shut. 2010 no problem but perhaps not in 2009. I would probably take Garza over him next year.
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