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Top Five Stories–New York Mets

August 27th, 2008 · 2 Comments

Patrick DiCaprio

Lots of great stories here for the Metropolitans, as they go up and down and their bullpen gets shellacked on a daily basis.

Obviously the biggest story in real baseball for the Mets is the continued implosion of the bullpen. But for fantasy purposes that story really doesn’t have a lot of value, as fun as it is to watch in a Greg Norman type of way.

1. Mike Pelfrey’s Ascension-There isn’t an analyst anywhere that thought Mike Pelfrey would be the Mets’ second best pitcher or that he would be one of the best pitchers overall. Yet, here he is with an 11-2 record in his last thirteen decisions. He is probably going to make my All-Regression team next year as he has a 3.70 ERA versus a 4.65 xERA and a K/BB rate below 2.0, the benchmark we like for a starting pitcher. Enjoy it while it lasts but don’t expect it to continue to next year.

2. Carlos’ Delgado’s Second Half Resurgence-This is the second straight year that Delgado has been far better in the second half. He has the best HR and RBI guy in the league in the last two months and he has still been very unlucky, with a .299 xBA versus a .259 actual batting average. On the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable Show a few weeks ago Brian Joura argued (speculated?) that the Mets might have to pick up Delgado’s option for next year, and with each passing day that becomes more likely. His continued hot hitting may be second in importance to the bullpen for the Mets’ playoff run.

3. The Continued Excellence of David Wright-One could make a very credible argument that David Wright is already the best Met hitter ever. However, Wright’s value has taken a bit of a dip this year as he only has 14 steals so far after a 30 steal season in 2007. This is mostly a function of him taking fewer opportunities to steal, as he is only taking 12% of his opportunities this year. I thought he would be the most valuable fantasy player in the game, and though that hasn’t occurred he has still been a consistent run producer with first round value. Brian Joura is our resident Met expert and maybe we will get him to talk about Wright in the pantheon of Metdom.

4. Jose Reyes’ Power-A little recognized story this season is the development of Jose Reyes’ power. Though he hits only 33% of his balls in the air, this is the first season in which his linear weighted power index has been above average with a 104 figure. Even in 2006, when he hit 19 HR, he was lucky in his HR/FB percentage as his LWP was only 98. If this power increase continues into next year as he enters his age 26 season then watch out. He not only may be the number one fantasy player in 2009 he will vault himself into the conversation with Wright as the best Met. It seems realistic to suggest that he may be a front runner for the top fantasy spot in 2009.

5. Fernando Tatis??!!!- Another guy taken off the scrap heap, he has been an even bigger surprise than Pelfrey. He is on pace, were it a full season, to be a 20-80-.300 player and with a .292 xBA he appears fully legit this year. It is often said that once a player has a skill he owns it and it can reappear at any time. He may be exhibit number one for this tenet. A combo of Ryan Church and Fernando Tatis would make a pretty valuable outfielder. Don’t count on Tatis being this good next year, as his season is essentially composed of a huge July and not much else. He has saved his career as even if he drops off next year teams will keep paying him hoping for another July.

Honorable Mention goes to Oliver Perez, the implosion of the pen, and the continued decline of Carlos Beltran’s slugging.

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2 responses so far ↓

  • 1 Brian Joura // Aug 27, 2008 at 7:55 am

    1. Since May 31st, Pelfrey has 69 strikeouts and 27 walks, well above your 2:1 threshold. You can put him on your all-regression team if you wish but it would be a mistake to expect him to have anything like the regression of say, Cliff Lee.

    2. Jay Sarney was one of the ones who unanimously called me crazy when I called for the Mets to pick up Delgado’s option on the Roundtable Show.

    3. The thing with Wright is that he’s an opportunistic base stealer. Wright’s steals come when he has figured out the other pitcher’s move or if the pitcher just completely ignores him. He’s not a burner and to expect him to repeat last year’s stolen base totals was optimistic.

    4. In 2006 Reyes was the MVP of 5×5 leagues. In 2007 he was the 5th most valuable player in the National League. Currently he’s the 5th most valuable hitter in the majors. Even with no increase in power, he’s on the short list of players to consider for the number one pick.

    5. The last thing I want to do is defend Fernando Tatis but he’s had 11 runs scored, 15 RBIs, 4 HR, and 12 walks in August with four games to play. It’s not great, but that’s solid production from a guy rescued from the scrap heap.

    Finally, I think it’s more accurately described as the mismanagement of the bullpen. And I don’t know if it’s fair to talk about “continued decline” with Beltran. He had a career year in 2006 and has underperformed in two out of five months this season. He only hit 2 HR in July, which led to a .386 SLG. In August he has a .505 SLG, which is above his lifetime mark of .493

  • 2 Patrick DiCaprio // Aug 27, 2008 at 8:14 am

    You may be right on Delgado, but he subsequently changed his tune! Good call though I will give you full credit and amend the article.

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