The Yankees played with fire when jerking Joba around, and now we are hoping they don’t get burned.
As any regular readers know I was vehemently against the Yankees moving Joba to the rotation this year. My rationale was that they had decided on a plan to keep him in the pen to make sure he got innings under his belt, improved his control and to make sure he was healthy. The Yankees so stated a mere two weeks before desperation set in and they dispensed with that plan and jerked him into the rotation.
As I said on the Talking Baseball Live show which I did with Tony Cincotta subbing for Lenny Melnick and Paul Greco, it wasn’t a matter of whether the result of the move worked. As a matter of process it was clear that the decision making process was poor; driven by urgency and diving headlong into the breach without considering what was best for the pitcher as an asset. The Yankees were playing roulette with a multi-million dollar asset for no reason.
My feeling was not necessarily that he would get hurt, though he does have an injury history and pushing a guy to the rotation and extending his innings without him showing he could survive the rigors of a big league season, even in the pen, smacks of flawed thinking. There are so many things that can go wrong when you have mapped out a plan for a hugely valuable asset like Joba, handle him in accordance with that plan and then reverse course for no apparent reason. Here the injury risk was significant, and this is not a case of Monday morning quarterbacking or the Sharpshooter Fallacy; this was the opinion of a few analysts stated before the fact.
Now he gets hurt. Whether this was expected is beside the point; I don’t think anyone predicted that he would specifically get hurt. But it was a big risk and was so stated at the time of the transition. When you play roulette and there are many risks that can result in a loss it is inevitable that one will come true at some point.
Results can lead us down the wrong path. We get so enamored with the results that we ignore the additional risk we are taking. Like the roulette player on a hot streak, more and more money finds its way onto the table, until that dreaded double zero comes up and wipes it all away. Here the Yankees, and myself for that matter, got swept up in Joba’s success. In my last column on Joba, I stated that I thought the transition had worked out as well as anyone could have expected. I fell into the same trap as everyone else; instead of recognizing the increased risks as Joba got pushed more and more, the results indicated to all the world that it was a successful transition.
For now it is unclear what is wrong, though a visit to Dr. James Andrews is never a good sign. Our friends at Razzball know this all too well, nicknaming him Dr. Freeze, as anyone who goes to see him is likely to end up on ice for a year. As a Yankee fan I am hoping for the best but let’s face it, when you play with fire you will get burnt.
6 responses so far ↓
1 Horatio Hornblower // Aug 6, 2008 at 6:47 am
What is the point of this article? Ego stroking. That is all.
2 Jordan // Aug 6, 2008 at 6:59 am
Patrick,
I am a friend of Mike’s, so I read some of the articles and listen to the round table when he asks, and I find you to be very knowledgeable about the game. However, I would think you’d realize that someone like Johan Santana is more valuable to a team than Scott Shields. 7-8 innings of ace type stuff beats 1 inning any day of the week. If you remember, Joba was a starter his entire career in the minors, until the Yanks decided they needed a setup man last year because no one else could do the job. Since Joba cruised through the minors, they figured to control his innings, using him in that role at that time was the best thing for the team. This year, it was obvious how bad our pitching staff was, and the best thing for the team was to put Joba back as a starter, like he was projected for, like he has been his whole career. This is just a freak thing that happened, as he was lights out the entire year, leading up to two nights ago, where he pointed to his shoulder. Anyone who thought Joba should have stayed in the bullpen, in my opinion, doesn’t assess value properly to the baseball world. I hope Joba is ok, and I respect everything you type and say, truthfully. But, in this respect, I think you need to reassess where the most value lies when you have a talent as special as Joba.
3 Don // Aug 6, 2008 at 9:26 am
Jordan,
I think you missed Patrick’s point. I don’t mean to speak for him, but I don’t believe Patrick was saying that Joba was more valuable to the Yankees this year as a reliever than as a starter, but rather that the Yankees are now victims of their own desire to get short-term results. Yes, they had a solid starter this year, but the Yankees risked his long-term health (and their longer-term success) by putting him into the rotation mid-season. Regardless of whether he was a starter in the minors, it’s risky to move a player from reliever to starter mid-season.
4 Carl Trusty // Aug 6, 2008 at 12:17 pm
I also agree that the yankees should never have made joba a relief pitcher. That is a role for a guy that has good stuff .But is older.Or has come to the majors for that reason.But to take a bull of a starter and do that is nuts.But look at scott Kazmir. They traded him because he was slight of built.And they thought he would get injured.The guy they get for him Zimbrano is broken to start with. I am a die hard yankee fan.They keep bringing the either not ready ever players- Brent Gardner up.Or you may see kei Igawai back soon.This guy could not get a good H.S. team out a low 80,s fastball,mixed with horrible control.Or lets bring the boomer back.He looked good at old timers day.I could be a scout for the yankees. I can watch a player hit ,run throw,catch.And does he hit for power.I would take a great natural athlete.That has good work ethics.2 years of tripple A ball.Out of the 10 I would bring up in the first 9o days.5 should stick .2 position players every year.That was the same way baseball was done.before the players became retreds from team to team.And the almighty dollar.I dont want to get my self started.But it may never happen in my lifetime again.The yankees win.The yankees win.the world series.Im 54 so I hope for the years.Thanks for letting me vent.And I will say a prayer for Joba.A great young man.Who any father would be very proud of.I can relate.My son is built like him.Looks could pass for brothers.And we have a father son relationship like he has with his dad.All the best Carl Trusty
5 Patrick DiCaprio // Aug 6, 2008 at 7:18 pm
Don you are right, my point is not that Joba is more valuable as a reliever.
Horatio-i said that I fell into a trap and made the wrong conclusion about his short term results as as a starter, and was wrong in my last article on him. I dont think admitting the error is ego stroking.
My whole point is that believing in the term was wrong and I admitted my mistake. I was seduced away from the flawed plan just like everyone else. even though I may have had the right idea i ended up with the wrong conclusion in the end.
6 Friday Linkage - 08/08/08 : Sox Addict - There’s no 12-step program for this.. // Aug 11, 2008 at 7:14 am
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