What a disappointing year this has been for the Pads. They have made me look bad as I picked them to win the West in the Generals’ preseason predictions article. Let’s see what interesting stories I could dig up…

1. The disappearance of Khalil Greene. A .213/.260/.339 line? Seriously? A .599 OPS is not what anyone expected from a player who has posted a .700+ OPS the last 4 years. At 27 years of age, Greene should be expected to improve and potentially see a breakout one of these years, but instead, he fell off a cliff. After making contact at between 81% and 79% in each of his previous full seasons, he suddenly lost some of that ability and only put up a 74% contact rate this year. Never a high BABIP guy, a higher strikeout rate is the last thing you want from Greene. Although his BABIP of .262 was low on an absolute basis, his career rate is only .285, so it wasn’t too much lower than random variation would suggest. Interestingly, his line drive rate was nearing 21%, but being an extreme fly ball hitter and playing in an extreme pitcher’s park isn’t the recipe for a high BABIP. His power also declined drastically, as his ISO was just .126 after hitting .214 last year and generally sitting in the .180 range prior to 2007. Can he rebound? I think so, and if he could ever stay healthy for a full year, I believe he could hit 25 HRs again, as last year’s 27 HR season came with only an 11.6% HR/F, a very reasonable number. Though, he rarely walks, and his BB/K ratio is terrible, so it’s very possible that pitchers have stopped throwing him strikes and he has to realize this and make adjustments, or he’s going to fade away fast.

2. The end is near for Trevor Hoffman. Or is it? Before the season, many of us were predicting that Hoffman would lose his job this year as his skills were in freefall and Heath Ball was ready to take over. Although he’s kept the job all year, it would appear we were partially right if we looked solely at Hoffman’s 4.24 ERA. However, underneath the worst ERA of his career, of which is only the 4th time it’s even been above 3, we find Hoffman is actually pitching better than ever. His strikeout rate is the highest it’s been since 2003, walk rate the lowest since 2004 and his average fastball velocity according to FanGraphs is actually the highest it’s been since the site shows the data beginning in 2005. So what’s the reason for the 4+ ERA? A 14.8% HR/F is the problem, which is more than double the 6.2% rate he has averaged since 2002. So I’m going to say that Hoff is as good as ever and is now suffering from some poor fortune, reversing the years of good luck in the past. We can’t be sure if this skills rebound will last through 2009, but if it does there should be no question about his expected performance coming into the season.

3. The arrival of Chase Headley. After a 1.008 OPS at Double-A in 2007 and a .935 OPS at Triple-A to begin the 2008 season, Pads fans and fantasy leaguers, especially those in keeper leagues, were excited to see what Headley could do at the MLB level. As we discussed on our Roundtable Radio Show, the consensus was a low average, maybe .250-.260ish, with average power, say 20 HRs over 550 ABs, and little value in shallow mixed leagues. At .263 and 8 HRs in 240 ABs, it appears we have been right on the mark so far. With a contact rate of just 71%, and a BABIP of .340, it’s scary to think he may even have some more batting average downside. What’s keeping him afloat though is his impressive 25.1% line drive rate, which would rank him 6th in baseball if he had enough ABs. His HR/F is at 13.6%, so I don’t see much upside there and he’s only hit 12 doubles so far, so combined with his home park, it will be tough for him to provide a good HR total. He is going to need to cut down on his strikeouts if he ever wants to have even middling fantasy value, since he doesn’t steal bases and plays on a poor offense that will do no favors to his RBI and R totals.

4. The Kouzmanoff breakout that never materialized. After a .317/.366/.524 post-ASB line in 2007 to go along with an excellent minor league record, Kouz looked like a prime breakout candidate. 529 ABs later in 2008, he’s posted an almost mirror image season to last year, but has instead been consistent in each half. His average, BABIP, HR/F, and FB% are all almost the exact same as last season. This year, however, he apparently is more concerned with his bet with Khalil Greene to see who could walk at the lowest rate for the year. Kouz is winning with a putrid 3.3% rate, equating to just 18 walks, versus 114 K’s. Although this is only his 2nd full year, Kouz is already 27 years old, so improvement needs to come quick or he’s in danger of toiling away in mediocrity. Not surprisingly, he has performed better on the road than at home, but he has hit 1 more HR at home this year in about the same number of ABs. In real baseball, he’s better than he appears from a fantasy lens because of the park adjustments you need to make to his stats, but being that we only get his raw stats in fantasy, he will remain a low end 3B option with only the hopes of a breakout until further notice.

5. Chris Young says hello to regression to the mean. What happens when you find a pitcher who had a .252 BABIP and 4.1% HR/F with a 3.12 ERA last year? You slap the overvalued tag on his name going into 2008 drafts. Sure enough, Young’s BABIP has regressed back to .293 and his HR/F is back up to 10.8%. As an extreme fly ball pitcher with below average control, the only really plus skill Young possessed was his solid strikeout ability, which has resulted in an 8+ K/9 each year since 2006. Sure PETCO is the dream venue for Young to perform his job, but the park doesn’t have that much magical power. With xFIPs in the high 4’s in both his previous years in San Diego, it’s no surprise that his ERA has finally caught up to his mediocre skill set. Of course his awful control this year, which has resulted in a walk rate above 5, isn’t helping any, so that ERA should probably be closer to the low to mid 4’s rather than the high 4’s given a typical BB/9. I know the hit to the face could be a factor in his poor performance since returning, but he wasn’t pitching well before the injury either. I’d definitely reset expectations for him next year without the assumption that he will continue to be among the league leaders in BABIP with a way below average rate.

Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.