Lucky me, I get to take on two sad, sad teams on consecutive days in our Top Five Fantasy Stories series. Although we still can’t be sure if Brian Sabean really understands what it means to put together a competitive team, there is no shortage of interesting topics to discuss. And on we go…

1. Is Tim Lincecum the best pitcher in baseball? As crazy as it sounds, it’s become a legitimate question. We debated something similar on Tuesday’s Fantasy Baseball Roundtable Show asking whether he should be the first pitcher selected in 2009 fantasy drafts. As big a fan of Tiny Tim as I am (I did project him for the 10th best ERA among starters before the season), I can’t consider him the best just yet. He’s had a fantastic season for sure, easily leading major league starters with a 10.21 K/9, almost a full strikeout higher than 2nd place A.J. Burnett. But the walk rate is still a little high at 3.40 per 9, though that does represent an improvement over last season’s 4.00 BB/9, and his GB% has dropped to 44% which is close to league average. As you’ll find most of the time when a pitcher sports a 2.60 ERA, Lincecum has benefitted from some good fortune, with just a 6.0% HR/F and a strand rate nearing 79%, both measures ranking him 5th in all of baseball. However, it seems as though AT&T Park has really deflated HRs this year as 4 of the 5 members of the Giants rotation appear in top 11 for HR/F ratio. This would seem logical as AT&T is a notorious pitcher’s park, however ESPN shows the stadium’s HR park factor at 1.014, meaning that the park has actually increased home runs by 1.4% this year! Very curious indeed. Back to Lincecum, he currently ranks 6th in all of baseball in xFIP, at 3.45, and when you add in the strikeouts, he’s most likely a top 5 fantasy pitcher next year, but #1 I say no to, in both real and fantasy baseball.

2. Fred Lewis’ emergence as a solid fantasy contributor. Although already 27 years old, which takes away any type of young star on the rise tag, Lewis is on pace for a solid .279-10-44-93-24 season in 537 ABs. That line clearly gives him some value in even shallower mixed leagues. Some red flags do appear, however, as his contact rate of just 73% is quite disconcerting for a hitter with such mediocre power. And for a guy who has managed only an 18.8% line drive rate, it’s difficult to see how his .365 BABIP is sustainable. Going forward, his ceiling seems like 15-30 given 600 ABs, but that average could very well be down at .250-.260 making him more like an above replacement level contributor in just 2 categories (runs and steals), rather than 3.

3. Matt Cain maintains his place as one of the top young pitchers in the game. Still just 23 years old, Cain is having another excellent season with a 3.69 ERA and 164 K’s. Unfortunately, I’m here to spoil the party. So far his major league success has been built largely upon his low HR/F which stands at just 5.8% this season and 6.1% for his career. Is Cain one of those rare outliers who have some greater ability to actually prevent fly balls from going over the fence? Surely his home park can’t take all the credit. So he’s either been enjoying a string of great luck, or he’s due for a regression that might see his ERA rise above 4.00. He’s surely a candidate to perform some in-depth analysis to determine whether he indeed has better control over this than most every other major league pitcher. As an extreme fly ball pitcher with below average control and a strikeout rate which is good, but not great, I continue to believe he’s overrated, assuming his HR prevention ability is mostly luck. Is the stuff and potential there for him to improve upon his walk and strikeout rates? Sure, but the current incarnation of Matt Cain just doesn’t have the skill set I expect to see for a pitcher many fantasy owners think has unlimited upside.

4. Will the talented youth movement ever begin? After wasting 956 ABs on washed up scrubs such as Omar Vizquel and Rich Aurilia and young, but established crap like Jose Castillo, the rookies are finally getting a chance, with names like John Bowker, Emmanuel Burriss, Eugenio Velez, Travis Ishikawa, and Pablo Sandoval. However, with the exception of possibly Sandoval, are any of these guys really the long-term answers at their respective positions? Most likely not. Although the Giants have some solid pitching prospects in Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson, their farm system on the hitting side appears barren. The one potential savior is mystery man Angel Villalona, who I believe is 19 and has posted a respectable .749 OPS at Single-A this year. And then there’s this year’s amatuer draft selection Buster Posey, who you’d think has to become a star with that name. But that’s basically it in terms of future impact bats. When will Brian Sabean finally be blamed for such a mess of an organization and be shown the door? ::raises hand:: Hey Giants, I’d be more than willing to take on the challenge for a minimal salary. I’ll be awaiting your call. ::puts hand down::

5. Brian Wilson’s 36 saves. The 36 saves represent a whopping 60% of the Giants’ 60 total wins.  Only Francisco Rodriguez has saved a higher percentage of his team’s wins. Wilson is also doing this in spite of a 4.00 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Tally another point in the “don’t pay for saves” strategy column. Although that ERA and WHIP aren’t likely helping your team, it has minimal impact coming in just 54 innings. All we really care about is the saves and the oft-cited myth that closers on bad teams won’t rack up many saves suffers another bruise. The bottom line is that saves are extremely unpredictable and trying to project them before the season is a fool’s errand. Who knew that the closer for the Giants, and one who’s only thrown 55 major league innings before this season, would have more saves at this point than Jon Papelbon and Mariano Rivera?

Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.