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Top Five Stories - Seattle Mariners

September 3rd, 2008 · 3 Comments

Andrew Cleary

As much as we may want to, we can’t ignore the Mariners forever in our look at the top five fantasy stories from each team. You may want to cover your eyes and read through the gaps between your fingers on this one.

1. Erik Bedard’s back. Coming in to the season, Erik Bedard probably had the highest fantasy value of his career. Coming off a 2007 season when he posted 221 strikeouts, a 13-5 record with a 3.16 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, Bedard looked ready to fix a place for himself in the elite ranks of pitchers. The big trade that brought Bedard to Seattle in February kept him front-and-center in our minds on draft day, and he went in the first round of most drafts. He pitched fairly well in the first half of the season, going 6-4 with a 3.67 ERA, but his strikeout rate was down and his walk rate up. We soon found out the likely reasons why, as he went on the DL at the start of April with hip inflammation. After going through some inconsistent starts (though, again, overall fair enough), Bedard started missing games with back spasms. He managed to play through for two last wins before the all-star break, but that was it for Bedard.

If it weren’t clear before, we have news now that Bedard won’t likely return this season, leaving a sad 2008 record in his wake. Sheesh, let’s keep moving.

2. J.J. Putz’s ribs and elbow. Recording 40 saves in 2007, Putz was right up there with the best closers of the year: Hoffman, Jenks, Saito, Papelbon, and so on, while Putz posted a lower ERA and lower WHIP than all of them, and only two blown saves on the year. He, again, was one of the highest-drafted relievers in 2008. He went on the DL on April 2nd after two appearances, blowing a save in his second. After his return, he blew two more saves and took two losses, but notched six saves, despite struggling with his control. Then he hyperextended his elbow, and sat out most of July, while Brandon Morrow took the closer’s job.

Since he’s returned, Putz has regained the closer role (and it appears he has it for the rest of the year), but his rough season continues. While he’s still striking out batters at a 10.10/9 rate, he’s walking them at a 6.10/9 clip (last year that BB/9 figure was 1.63), and he’s giving up more fly balls than ground balls. All of it adds up to a 10-save season thus far for Putz, with 8 blown saves to boot, and a good reason not to dwell any longer as we move on to number three.

3. Felix Hernandez’s ankle–er, his ace season. Sorry about that. King Felix did spend some time on the DL with a sprained ankle, but it hasn’t kept him from posting an excellent season at the top of the rotation. Though he lost the Opening Day start to Bedard, he’s been the real ace for the Mariners this year. He’s striking out batters as well as he always has, and he’s still inducing ground balls at a plus-50% clip, and so it’s very nice to see he has the sixth-best ERA in the AL with 3.27, and he’s posted the sixth-most strikeouts in the AL with his 154. It doesn’t seem fair to hold the 9-8 record against him, considering what team is supposed to give him run support.

4. Ichiro’s specialty. We don’t necessarily draft him for much more than batting average and speed, but Ichiro has usually come with at least a small RBI and run bonus each year. This year, however, he’s starting to look like his fantasy value may be strictly limited to the first two. A hot-hitting second half has kept Ichiro’s average above .300, and his 40 stolen bases are the second-most in the AL (and fifth-most in the majors). He’s 34 now, which means it’s fair to expect some decline. He has 39 RBI, 88 runs, and 181 hits, all of which are close to being on pace for his lowest totals in America (and possibly his first season without hitting over 200 hits). Let’s hope Ichiro can increase his walk rate as he gets older, so he can have a higher than .364 OBP to give him steal opportunities.

5. Raul Ibañez… huh. He’s 36, and yet he’s already sealed his fourth-straight 20-plus home run season. Before he turned 32, he only had one such season of homers. And this year he’s posting the best average of his career at .305. And the best OBP at .369. And the second-best OPS at .879. I mean, those aren’t the best numbers from an outfielder, but they’re up there. I mean. Huh. Very good. Very good all around, Mr. Ibañez.

I feel so bad for this team.

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3 responses so far ↓

  • 1 Brian Joura // Sep 3, 2008 at 9:44 am

    Well, those 40 steals and .310 average have Ichiro as the 18th-best offensive player in MLB.

    Hernandez may or may not have had great run support while he’s been in the game. But in his eight losses he has a 6.02 ERA (31 ER in 46.1 IP) so I’m guessing he’s earned many of those losses.

  • 2 Andrew Cleary // Sep 3, 2008 at 12:50 pm

    Points well made and taken, Brian. Hernandez certainly caused his share of his own problems, but in those eight games the Mariners offense never scored more than three runs, scoring two twice, one three times, and zero twice.

  • 3 Patrick DiCaprio // Sep 4, 2008 at 6:09 am

    Ichiro is turning into a guy who is a lot more valuable in fantasy than in real baseball.

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