After a fantastic, but somewhat surprising, rookie season last year, fantasy owners were ecstatic at the possibility of welcoming a new shortstop into the top 5 for seasons to come. A scintillating 2nd half that included 15 HRs in just 294 ABs and an .891 OPS added more fuel to the fire and made us wonder if Tulowitzki could post an even better full season stat line in 2008. Unfortunately, 353 ABs later of a disappointing .711 OPS in an injury-riddled year has us scratching our heads. Who is the real Troy Tulowitzki?
In mid-June, I answered the weekly Roundtable question asking for the names of pitchers and hitters returning from injury that will pleasantly surprise. Tulo was one of my guys. Oops. Between suffering a torn tendon in his quad muscle that knocked him out for about 50 days and then slicing his hand after slamming his bat into the ground that cost him another 2+ weeks, this has been quite the forgettable year.
Pro-rating his current season numbers to 600 ABs for easier comparison with last year, Troy has put up this line: .252-12-70-73-2. What’s interesting is that this looks very similar to what I, and I’m sure many others, had projected for him in 2007. What many people might not know is that except for the 7 ABs he had at Triple-A during a rehab assignment this year, he has never played at that level. In fact, he’s only had more than 100 ABs at one minor league level! That came at Double-A when he had 423 ABs with an .838 OPS and 13 home runs, while hitting .291. Although these are decent totals, they certainly didn’t suggest the kind of season he ended up having for the Rockies in 2007.
Looking back at last year versus this year, there are many more similarities than differences. Actually, besides the decline in power, one could actually make a legitimate argument that Tulo has been a better hitter this year. His walk rate has inched slightly higher and his contact rate has dramatically improved, rising from 79% to 86%. His batted ball profile is almost identical to last year, yet his BABIP has fallen from .336 to .278. Hitting line drives at a 20% rate means the .336 BABIP from last year was very reasonable and so this year’s .278 seems to be just bad luck.
Getting back to his power decline, his HR/F ratio has been cut in half, dropping from 13.1% last year to 6.3%. However, his doubles rate has increased, so his power hasn’t been completely sapped. It would be easy to blame the quad injury as an explanation as maybe it’s affecting his ability to drive the ball, given how important the legs are in hitting, but he hit only 1 home run in 105 ABs before hurting himself! Unfortunately, we don’t know if it was just a slow start or a sign that his power would be down all year with or without the injury.
Before the season I had also read that Tulo would do more running this year. That was a questionable idea given his terrible success rate last year (54%) and in his time at Double-A (55%). His lone steal and 4 caught stealings this season could probably be attributed to his quad injury, but he was never a good bet for much more than 10 steals given his obvious lack of ability to steal a base successfully.
Last, Tulo got an enormous boost from playing half his games at Coors last year. His home/road splits were staggering, although pretty typical for a Rockies player. He posted a .960 home OPS and .719 road OPS, but this year his home OPS has dropped right back to his road OPS level. His home OPS is at just .704 and road OPS has held steady at the same .719. That’s the risk you take when relying on a home park to continue providing the same hitter-friendliness for hitters who just aren’t that good.
So what’s the bottom line here? Did Tulowitzki reach his near-term ceiling already during his rookie year, or was 2008 just a slow start exacerbated by his 2 injuries? Could we could expect a full rebound next year to his rookie season level or better due to age-related improvement? Well I hate to answer this way because it always feels like a cop out, but I think Tulo’s true talent level is currently between his 2007 and 2008 seasons. If he could maintain his much improved contact rate though, then he could hit .280-.290 again, assuming just a slight increase in power. The home runs I’d expect to range in the mid-to-high teens, probably around 15-18. No matter what is said in the off-season, I wouldn’t expect any more than 5-7 steals as he just hasn’t learned how to be a base stealer, and might never. A permanent return to the 2-hole in the order will obviously have a huge impact on his RBI and R totals, so monitor spring training to see what Clint Hurdle decides to do. Finally, he should come at a deeply discounted price in next year’s drafts/auctions, so he could prove to be an excellent buy and a real bargain.
Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.
6 responses so far ↓
1 Gary from Chapel Hill // Sep 23, 2008 at 12:30 pm
Man, what a conundrum! In our mixed keeper/contract league, the only players eligible for the auction are players who had at least 100 AB the previous season. Following the auction, there is a five round “minor league” draft where any player not purchased in the auction (or kept) can be picked. Each round’s players are assigned a salary for the following year.
In the first round of the minor league draft in ‘07, I took Tulo. His assigned salary was $8. Obviously, I kept him for ‘08. Now I have to decide whether to keep him for ‘09 at $ 8, extend him for a year and raise his salary to $ 13 (no way), or cut him.
The problem is, if I keep him at $ 8 for ‘09, I lose him at the end of the season regardless. My worry is that he’ll become a star in ‘09 and I’ll miss out on his bigtime seasons.
Another thought is to cut him and try to get him back in the auction for $ 10 or less (in which case I’ll have him for ‘09 and ‘10 and ‘11 at that salary).
Any thoughts?
2 Mike Podhorzer // Sep 23, 2008 at 12:55 pm
Hi Gary, is this a 12 team mixed league? How many keepers do you get and how high does inflation typically run? Another thing to look at is how many shortstops do you expect to be kept. The more kept, the higher Tulo would likely go for if you threw him back.
This is a tough one. On one hand, although $8 isn’t a super bargain, it’s a pretty solid risk to bet on a rebound and I certainly expect him to earn more than that next year. However, most everyone is down on him and he was dropped during the season in 2 of my 4 leagues (1 of the 2 he wasn’t was coz I owned him all year! ), so it’s very possible you could get him back for under $10.
Unless inflation is real high or you have a bunch of Tulo lovers in your league, I’d imagine you could get him back for $10 or less in next year’s auction. Throwing him back so you could lock him up longer at a similar price might be the best bet. Even if you had to go an extra dollar or two, the extra years you’d be able to keep him would make it worth it.
3 Larry Yocum // Sep 23, 2008 at 2:22 pm
I got burned by the Tulowitzki train this season in two of my leagues.
What really got me was that amazing spring. Having a great year last year already set the price high and then he goes and hits six home runs in 49 spring at-bats to make it look like last season was anything but a fluke. Then the regular season started….
In 353 ABs, he has barely managed to eclipse that spring number of homers at 7. That is rough considering where he was going in drafts.
At least he is young and the second half is much better at a .317 average so far and 21:29 walk to K ratio.
Here is something to ponder, he only hit .243 in Coors this season and .261 on the road (.704 OPS at home and .719 on the road as Mike points out), but last year he killed the ball at Coors with a .326 avg. and 15 of his 26 HRs. So, I am wondering if he got Coors into his head and started swinging for HRs instead of contact. Usually this doesn’t have as big of an impact on the Rockies’ own players, but I have heard other teams discuss coming into Coors and allowing the idea of the HR to change their approach and change their swing. Maybe it happened to Tulo? Even in the age of the humidor, there are not many cases of Rockies actually performing better on the road. Usually they are clearly better at Coors like Tulo was last season.
Nice article Mike.
4 Gary from Chapel Hill // Sep 23, 2008 at 6:45 pm
Mike,
12 team mixed league with up to 15 keepers, although we use the C2, C1, C0 contract years with a long term extension at a $5 per extra year raise (and to cut a guy in the middle of an extension costs you half of the remaining value at the next auction).
I’m leaning toward throwing him back and hoping for $ 10 or less. I’m still pretty high about him going forward.
It may come down to where the various publications value him prior to next season. I don’t have to make a decision until Feb 15. We also have a new rule where you submit your keepers on Feb 15 but you have the option to make one more drop a week prior to the auction in March. Tulo might be the one on the bubble.
5 Adam K // Sep 27, 2008 at 6:43 am
In my opinion, Tulo is a sure fire bargain, and a keeper. 1) His ratios have improved in the areas Mike mentions. 2) His 2nd half numbers, other than homers, are very solid this year, very in line with’07. 3) His character and work ethic are unquestionable, on the order of Dustin Pedroia. 4) He’s doing his development at the major league level, so he’s still in his learning curve, only when it happens in the majors, it can be a longer process (witness Dioner Navarro).
I think Tulo is what everyone expected Bobby Crosby to be, and he’ll never slam his bat into the ground again. Better to learn it this year, and be wiser long term! He’s my guy long term, and with Pedroia next to him in my Strat league, I feel set for a decade.
Adam
6 Tim Thompson // Sep 29, 2008 at 7:43 am
Ive watched Troy since his HS days and he has never been a big power guy, even at Long Beach where he became a top-10 pick, he wasnt a huge power guy, so I was a bit suprised last year at his production, but then I thought to myself…what about Hanley Ramirez? Our league has minor leaguers and I had Hanley as ML player, and go back and look at his power and offensive numbers in the minors compared to in the majors whether its HR/RBI or even batting average, all are much better since he arrived in the show. So I thought why not Troy? Same kind of deal. But time will tell…I dont think TT will be a year in year out 30HR player, but I think you’ll know his floor year in and year out, just is it going to be an 18 HR season or 25-30…
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