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Lastings Milledge Versus Vernon Wells

October 10th, 2008 · 1 Comment

Patrick DiCaprio

On the Roundtable show on Tuesday we discussed whether fantasy owners should prefer Wells or Milledge in 2009. Surprisingly the Roundtable was unanimous for Wells. Despite this, one can make a good case for Milledge

When trying to come up with topics for the Roundtable Show we often try to come up with questions that will foment disagreement, and I thought that this one would definitely have some good discussion. While the discussion was interesting there was no disagreement as everyone took Wells.

But I think there is good reason to consider Milledge. In 2008 he turned 24. Despite his relatively young age he still had 14 HR and 24 SB, while hitting in a tough park. In addition his second half showed some definite promise.  Lastings hit a very solid .299/.346/.448 in the second half, with seven HR and 11 steals. He also scorched the ball for a 23% line drive rate in the second half, leading to a far better BABIP and BA.

What we have here is a prime “25+2″ player. For those who have never heard of this, there is a much higher potential of a breakout season out of nowhere among the group of players that are age 25 and have had two years in the majors.  Chris Iannetta is a perfect example of this phenomenon, having two very weak seasons and then breaking out at age 25.

As good as Wells might be, I think we can all pretty much agree that a “breakout” by Milledge, depending on how it is defined, will be better than the typical Vernon Wells season. This is double true since Wells has apparently lost the ability or desire to steal bases.

When we consider that Milledge will be a lower pick in most leagues I think there is a very good case to be made for taking Milledge over Wells. Milledge is a definite threat for 30 steals and if he does that while hitting 20 HR he wins in a landslide.  Milledge can still become the All-Star that many thought he would, and 2009 might be the year.

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1 response so far ↓

  • 1 Rhett Oldham // Oct 10, 2008 at 10:03 am

    Patrick, I will keep Milledge in mind when I am drafting a SLEEPER 4th OF. Wells will be drafted higher for sure and is the safer pick. Bottom line it all comes down to value

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