1. “Value” is a subjective concept and not an objective concept. Fantasy owners should not be tied down to conceptions of “values” on draft day. Projections are nothing more than symbols that try to sum up a range of probabilities in one line.

2. “Buy Low and Sell High” is largely a myth, especially against better or tougher competitors.

3. Do not chase wins when obtaining pitchers.

4. Do not put credence into any website or writer that proffers “rules” to follow for fantasy success. They are wrong.

5. In weekly head to head leagues, focusing on risk management and constructing a team that will matchup up well against the field are important precepts that go largely ignored.

6. Unorthodox strategies are more likely to work against better competition than pedestrian competition. Against weaker competition standard strategies must be preffered because your judgemnt and skill advantages will carry the day. As the competition gets tougher so does the

7. All fantasy baseball metrics should be based on regression to the established means. Water, and player performance, will seek its own level.

8. Do not be seduced by short term samples or analysts who base their opinions on short term samples.

9. Skills are far more important than actual results, which are riddled with short term fluctuations.

10. Luck and the role of chance play far bigger roles in fantasy success than 99% of experts care to admit. As the competition gets tougher the role of chance is magnified. This is because marginal gains in knowledge and preparation are scarce against other owners who all have the same information and knowledge that you do.

11. Every format requires different skills to succeed.

12. True expertise is hard to come by and 99% of the fantasy information out there is from non-experts. Be wary of this advice. Apply these criteria to all you read.

13. With credit to Lenny Melnick, who coined the phrase, a rookie is a rookie is a rookie. Rookies are almost always overvalued on draft day and in season. Against tough competition the rookie chaser almost never wins.

14. Beware of the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy, to which most fantasy analysts fall prey.

15. In considering “pitch or ditch” pitchers, the focus should be on finding pitchers with hidden skills going against bad offenses. All else is noise and of little to no value.

16. When in doubt always depend on the “hard” evidence of statistics versus the “soft” evidence of opinion.

17. The idea that you should not target specific players is wrong.

18. Fantasy analysts who do not understand the idea of “opportunity cost” are not experts, as opportunity cost is the single most important consideration in auction leagues.

19. When making the end game selections we must recognize that one simply cannot make fine distinctions based on numbers that are inherently unreliable, especially at the end of the draft when the margin for error is inordinately excessive. So just draft the player you prefer and don’t worry too much about their projection.

20. Perhaps most importantly, decisions can only be evaulated based on information that existed at the time of the decision. Do not let results seduce your evaluation of the actual thought process. Process wins over results in evaluation.